How many passengers will use the train?
The CSHRA claims that 117,000,000 passengers per year will ride the train by 2030. This number of riders is absurd. A train will carry 800 passengers. That would mean in a 10 hour travel day, there would have to be one train leaving one train leaving sooner than every two minutes. This projected ridership number comes from a study the CSHRA funded which shows you page after page of statistics, and then uses a modeling program with a highly problematic tool called “sensitivity analysis” that generates those numbers. It appears to be standard practice to over-estimate ridership for a projected transit system (just as it is to under-estimate development costs). The Eurail/Chunnel system originally projected 19 million annual riders. After more than 16 years, they are under 10 million.
