How do scientists detect intraseasonal oscillations (also called MJO) and predict their evolution?
Due to its slowly evolving nature, accurate prediction of the MJO is fundamentally related to our ability to monitor the feature and to assess its relative position and strength. Dynamical models generally do not predict the MJO well, partly because of the inherent difficulties that still remain regarding the correct mathematical treatment of tropical convective (rainfall) processes. Meteorologists use a variety of data and analysis techniques to monitor, study and predict tropical intraseasonal oscillations and their evolution. Of primary importance is information derived from NOAA=s polar-orbiting and geostationary satellites. Satellite-derived data are used to indicate regions of strong tropical convective activity, and regions in which the convective activity departs substantially from the long-term mean. These departures from normal are a fundamental diagnostic tool that is used directly to monitor and predict the MJO as it propagates around the global tropics. A second fundamenta
