How accurate is ALOHA?
A. At least one expert in atmospheric dispersion modeling has stated a rule of thumb: a model is considered accurate if its estimates fall within a factor of two of what would happen in a real release. This rule is based mainly on expert judgment, rather than experimental evidence. By this rule, a model would be accurate if, for example, it predicted that the concentration of a dispersing gas at a particular location would be no more than 200 parts per million (ppm) and no less than 50 ppm, if the real concentration at that location was 100 ppm. To the best of our knowledge, ALOHA meets this definition of accuracy. But it’s important to recognize that our ability to judge the accuracy of dispersion models is limited by data scarcity: Because only a few field experiments have been conducted in which hazardous gases were released and their concentrations measured, we have few data to measure our models against. Other factors affect ALOHA’s ability to make accurate predictions for any par
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