How accurate are the predictions?
They seem to be pretty good predictors of performance. They are, however, based on average reduction of speed as the race distance increases, and this relationship will vary from person to person (as well as on the type of training they do: see above). There is therefore a significant margin of error around the estimates. The margin of error is bigger if the gap between the distances is large. In other words, a half marathon will typically be a better predictor of marathon performance than a 1 mile race.
The accuracy of the tide predictions is different for each location. Periodically, we do a comparison of the predicted tides versus the observed tides for a calendar year. The information generated is compiled in a Tide Prediction Accuracy Table. We work to insure that the predictions are as accurate as possible. However, we can only predict the astronomical tides; we cannot predict the effect that wind, rain, freshwater runoff, and other short-term meteorological events will have on the tides. In general, predictions for stations along the outer coast are more accurate than those for stations farther inland; such as, along a river, or in a bay or other estuary. Inland stations tend to have a stronger nontidal influence; that is, they are more susceptible to the effects of wind and other meteorological effects than stations along the outer coast. An example of an inland station that is difficult to predict is Baltimore, Maryland. This station is located at the northern end of Chesapeak
That depends on the number of people running DialIdol. With minimal data during the last six votes of American Idol season four DialIdol was about 65% accurate including predicting who would win. American Idol season five was the first time DialIdol was open to the public for a full season. The predictions started off being so/so but after the algorithm was adjusted and massive quantities of people started using DialIdol the accuracy was near dead on. All told, DialIdol was 87% accurate. It is worth noting that there are a lot of factors working against DialIdol being very accurate. The following circumstances exist that will result in inaccurate results. • When an operator says “all circuits are busy” – this counts as a vote. • If someone picks up the phone while you are dialing and the call does not complete – this counts as a vote. • DialIdol does not take any text message votes into account.Nevertheless, these predictions are not scientific. Use these predictions at your own risk.
To “buoy up a dying man with groundless expectations of recovery is really cruel.” It may lead to “overlooking the important concerns of futurity and involve families in confusion and distress.” Samuel Bard, 1769 How we choose to live our lives largely depends on our perception of the future. Should we strive for maximum comfort “today” or make a sacrifice anticipating a later reward? What should we focus on: career, family, a dying relative, children, spirituality, finances? Should a cancer patient accept a rigorous treatment hoping to recover or a palliative care knowing the end is near? Is it time to fight or time to reflect? Traditionally, patients and their families rely on physicians to make a prognosis of a life-threatening illness. Unfortunately, the accuracy of these predictions is generally rather poor. According to a recent study, which assessed survival estimates of 343 doctors for 468 patients, “only 20% predictions were accurate”. “Accurate” means within 33% of actual sur
The accuracy of the predictions vary depending upon many factors including changes in traffic patterns, accidents, Internet traffic, etc. Therefore NextBus cannot specify a precise overall accuracy. In general though, the margin of error is less than one minute for predictions of five-minutes or less. For ten-minute predictions, the margin of error is less than two minutes. We have biased the predictions slightly early to avoid people missing buses. NextBus is confident that you will find the system accurate enough to be very helpful. What are the benefits of the system? The NextBus system puts the transit rider in control. Even when you know what the schedule is, there are any number of reasons that vehicles may not arrive when expected. Traffic variations, breakdowns, and the day-to-day problems faced by any transit company can delay or completely interrupt service. By using the NextBus system to determine when the next vehicle is going to arrive, the rider doesn’t need to wait an in
