Wouldn’t the country get a windfall when outcomes improve for reasons that have nothing to do with its own actions?
Yes, countries would receive funding for each unit of progress regardless of how it was achieved. The only way to avoid this would be to create intrusive and expensive methods for attributing success to specific actions by the government. We are not concerned with such windfalls, however, for at least two reasons. First, the transparency and improvement of data quality that countries must achieve to make the COD contract pay is an important objective in and of itself. Second, it is unlikely that the government has not contributed in some way to the success, if only through supporting the basic administrative infrastructure necessary for the system to function. The worst that can happen is that a country that is doing well, making progress and supporting transparency, receives some additional funds – not much of a problem considering that the aid system routinely seeks to reward “good performers” anyway.
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