Would using smaller data intervals in the calibration phase improve the applicability of the model to scenarios involving alternate dam release strategies for the current year?
A27. Again, depending on your objectives, I d say no. However, what your question really sounds like is that you don t feel fully confident that you have a sufficient data set. I recommend that you follow your intuition on this. If you need to make recommendations this year, be conservative by about the magnitude of the probable error shown in the calibration statistics (Table 7). Recognize that any given prediction in time and space can be off by the maximum error, and the more really different conditions encountered as you go forward, the more that maximum will increase. But at the same time, the probable error will close asymptotically to some value I m guessing will be about 1.5 C.
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