would the Union split in two, with non-ratifying countries choosing a looser form of political integration – perhaps on the lines of the European Economic Area, which enjoys close economic links with the Union, but of which only Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein are currently members?
Nobody in Brussels will officially contemplate such outcomes, although, in private, speculation is rife and legal and political assessments differ. The sole reference to ratification problems in the constitutional treaty itself is a provision that if four-fifths of the member states have ratified the document two years after its signature, and the others have not, EU leaders will meet to decide what to do. The only certainties are that in such circumstances they would face one of the biggest political crises in the history of post-war European integration. It is perfectly possible, however, to envisage a number of different solutions to such a crisis, depending on whether the constitution is rejected by one member state or by several, by how large a margin, for what reasons, and, most importantly, which countries do the rejecting. If a number of countries, including large ones, did not ratify the constitution, doubts would be cast over its future and it could be abandoned. Then Europea
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