Would Tehran ‘regime change’ unlock new oil supplies?
Iran was the ‘Persia’ of the Anglo-Persian Oil Co. of the 1920s, later becoming BP (which, today, sometimes uses a prophetic nickname: Beyond Petroleum). Oil production and geophysical oil source rock prospecting dates back nearly 100 years. Iran’s peak production, never subsequently re-attained, was in 1978. This was only 8 years after the USA attained its own ultimate peak of oil production, after more than 100 years of oil exploration and production. Iran’s national or domestic demand continues to grow with population and economic growth, and, after China, Iran has the fastest-growing car fleet in Asia, at more than 10%pa each year since 1995. It is therefore rational for the ISIR, Bakhtiari and other analysts to argue that Iran’s oil production is so far past its peak that by 2010-2012 (see top of article), it will likely cease to have any exportable surplus of oil at all. Iran is set to become a net importer. For Iran, other than the long-dated siren call to develop nuclear power
