Would Russia and Ukraine proceed to armed conflict over a lighthouse and a navigation facility?
Today, armed conflict over the latest incidents on the Black Sea and the Azov Sea seems unlikely. The dispute over Tuzla in 2003 was just one in a long series of tense standoffs between Russia and Ukraine over the region. Before 2003, rows similar to the one over Tuzla saw both Russia and Ukraine deploy troops either to protect or to seize military facilities in Crimea, and the disputes even witnessed the “defection” to Ukraine of a Russian navy frigate. (9) However, despite having been authorized to use force to secure their respective country’s interests, neither Ukraine’s nor Russia’s armed forces fired a shot in any of these face-offs. In this light, it is not clear why Russia last week reportedly gave its service members “all the powers which are mentioned by the garrison’s guard regulations” in order to protect Russia’s interests in the facilities of the Black Sea Fleet. (10) Similarly, on 16 January Anatoly Kinah, secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, dec
