Would prostate cancer detected by screening with prostate-specific antigen develop into clinical cancer if left undiagnosed?
OBJECTIVE: To assess the risk of over-diagnosing and over-treating prostate cancer if population-based screening with serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) is instituted. PATIENTS AND METHODS: From a serum bank stored in 1980, PSA was analysed in 658 men with no previously known prostate cancer from a well-defined cohort from Göteborg, Sweden (men born in 1913); the incidence of clinical prostate cancer was registered until 1995. From the same area, and with the same selection criteria, another cohort of 710 men born in 1930-31, who in 1995 accepted an invitation for PSA screening, was also analysed. RESULTS: Of men born in 1913, 18 (2.7%) had died from prostate cancer and the cumulative probability of being diagnosed with clinical prostate cancer was 11.1% (5.0% in those with a PSA level of < 3 ng/mL vs 32.9% in those with a PSA level of > 3 ng/mL, P < 0.01). The mean lead-time from increased PSA (> 3 ng/mL) to clinical diagnosis was 7 years. The prostate cancer detection rate in men
