With increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, how will climate respond in the future?
This is one of the hardest questions to address as illustrated in the NOVA video we will be watching in class next week. The only tools we have to examine this question are computer models of climate. These climate models must incorporate a description of the atmospheric circulation and composition, oceanic circulation, hydrological cycle, clouds, etc… To look at past and future changes in temperature, these models need to consider: (1) anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols, (2) external sources of climate variability such as volcanoes and solar variabiliy, and (3) internal feedback processes that amplify the effects of increasing greenhouse gases, such as cloud-albedo feedbacks, ice-albedo feedbacks, water vapor feedback. Current state-of-the art climate models predict the some of the following (again from the IPCC report): • Increase in global surface temperature by 1.4-5.8C over the period from 1990 to 2100. Larger rate of temperature increase than at any other
Related Questions
- How do we know the warming is a result of the buildup of Greenhouse Gases in the atmosphere from human activity, and not the result of natural climate variability or some other natural cause?
- How do we know levels of Carbon Dioxide and other Greenhouse Gases are increasing in the atmosphere?
- Why is the setting of greenhouse gases targets a controversial issue?
