Will the Revolutionary Guards continue to back Khamenei?
However, with his unreserved support for Ahmadinejad, Khamenei risks becoming increasingly dependent on the IRGC. By cutting himself off from the important segment of the population represented by Rafsanjani — who, after all, has been Khamenei’s comrade in arms for more than 50 years — Khamenei is in danger of becoming a hostage to the IRGC. The question is what the IRGC can or will do. They find themselves in the same favorable position as the traditional business interests were in during the 1979 revolution. Then, the clergy succeeded in taking power with the support and financing of the bazaar. Now the same clergy depends on the IRGC to retain power. Increasingly, that support may come with strings attached. The IRGC could play the role of “consigliere” among the different factions of the regime. But one way or another they will be forced to eliminate the contradictions between the logic of business and the logic of power that have emerged. This could mean forcing Ahmadinejad to a
