Why is the expansion theory evidence for the big bang?
Zeno’s paradox indeed! The evidence for a big bang is that we see distant objects in the night sky are shifted to the red, which is interpreted as a doppler shift. The objects are distant because they are dim and we know they are dim because there is a brightness relationship for certain stars that flicker that relates their frequency of blinking to how much energy they emit. Using this big bang model allows us to derive another observed effect which is a microwave background radiation coming at us from all directions in the same way. Your probability observation misses that there are infinitely many possibilities as well as infinite time an the first infinity is larger. This means everything possible will never have enough time to happen.