Why is the differential diagnosis list for a Bioterrorism scenario not Bayesian?
The standard GIDEON diagnosis matrix is Bayesian; ie, based on the product of disease incidence X symptom/sign probability. In contrast, the Bioterror module is non-Bayesian – ie, relative disease incidence (prior probability) is not factored into generation of the differential diagnosis list. Although we may intuitively assume that Anthrax and Smallpox carry higher ‘probability’ for use in Bioterror, vs. Marburg disease or Argentine hemorrhagic fever, precise numbers are lacking. Associated Epidemiology notes stress the history and relevance of individual diseases to Bioterrorism. The number of people who develop smallpox from a “smallpox-bomb” may be the same as the number who develop Ebola from an “Ebola-bomb.” For this reason, if there is a possibility of bioterror, GIDEON ranks the diseases only on the basis of the chance for symptoms in each disease.
The standard GIDEON diagnosis matrix is Bayesian; ie, based on the product of disease incidence X symptom/sign probability. In contrast, the Bioterror module is non-Bayesian – ie, relative disease incidence (prior probability) is not factored into generation of the differential diagnosis list. Although we may intuitively assume that Anthrax and Smallpox carry higher ‘probability’ for use in Bioterror, vs. Marburg disease or Argentine hemorrhagic fever, precise numbers are lacking. Associated Epidemiology notes stress the history and relevance of individual diseases to Bioterrorism. The number of people who develop smallpox from a “smallpox-bomb” may be the same as the number who develop Ebola from an “Ebola-bomb.” For this reason, if there is a possibility of bioterror, GIDEON ranks the diseases only on the basis of the chance for symptoms in each disease.
