Why is it hard for scientists to predict when a earthquake is going to happen?
We could predict earthquakes if they always followed a regular pattern. For example, if there was always a tiny tremor, then a medium one the next day, then the big one a day after that, then it would be easy. But sadly it doesn’t work that way. Sometimes tremors build up over a few days (I think the recent quake in Italy was preceded by a mini-tremor or two), but sometimes it’s the exact opposite: a long period without tremors leads to a build-up of pressure which eventually results in one big quake. The hope for the future is that more and more data is being analysed – there’s an unbelievably large number of sensors (seismographs) dotted all around the globe, and modern computers can crunch the data very quickly. Hopefully an identifiable pattern will emerge soon, that gives enough warning to evacuate populated areas.
