Why does Japan hold the key to Kyoto?
The EU, Norway and Switzerland intend to ratify the Kyoto Protocol (the biggest element of uncertainty within the EU is Italy). The Eastern European countries also seem to be following this step. Romania has already ratified. (The biggest impediment for these countries is the discontent with the high payments which have to be made to the developing countries according to Pronk’s paper.) Russia knows on the one hand that they are in a position to prevent the Kyoto Protocol from entering into force. Hence, in addition to ‘hot air’ they are trying to obtain even ‘forest air’ (loans for the growth of sinks on a large scale and (almost) free of charge). On the other hand, all the other countries know that Russia would be the big winner of the Kyoto Protocol anyway, both in terms of finance and in terms of technology transfer (although without the participation of the US this would only be true to a smaller extent compared to a scenario where the US buys large quantities of allowances). That
