Why does China’s shadow on the world stage seem larger than it really is?
First of all, the data is incorrect. Some opinion polls show that Americans believe China is a larger economy than the US; it isn’t. It’s also wrong to extrapolate from recent trends and straight-line them and say ‘that’s what will happen in the future’. It’s been done in the past, and as far as the Asian order is concerned, it’s proven to be wrong. We thought the Soviet Union or Japan would be the leading power of Asia. In both cases, the US was supposed to be in decline. This is also why I’m sceptical about China’s rise. Are there risks in exaggerating China’s ascent? There are. I was in government for long, and I’ve seen that Americans make bad policy on China when they get excited about China in either a positive or a negative way. So I don’t want them to think that China is a big threat — or that it is a giant opportunity either. It’s much more mixed. Keeping that in mind helps make realistic policy. There’s a danger in a country’s government making its judgement on China ‘having
