Why do Exit Polls Fail?
Haven’t you often wondered about why exit polls fail to forecast in India? Here is an ‘inside’ insight into why they fail. One of the biggest myths about exit poll failures is the sample size. Often, I hear on TV (and cringe) about how 300000 exit poll participants can forecast who 300 million voters would for. Statistical theory says you could forecast 300 million voting intentions with just 50000 exit poll participants with almost no error. Of course as the number goes up the error comes down. But that’s theory for you. In reality, sample sizes are dependent on the degree of homogeneity within the voting population. India, we know is nowhere near homogenous. In other words, higher or lower sample sizes will not alone solve the problem. Coming to the first reason for exit poll failures, it is not how many we interview about who they voted, it is where we we slected them from that is critical. In other words, is a voter from Kalkaji in South Delhi a better representation of voters in S
