Why didn the Pirates take a safer pick like high school shortstop Manny Machado?
This has been a common question since the Pirates drafted Taillon, and even came up well before the draft. Back in June, in my 2010 draft preview, I looked at some historical numbers to see just how much of a risk a top ranked prep pitcher was. Historically speaking, based on the results so far of the 2001-2005 drafts, a guy like Taillon has a 56.7% chance of reaching the majors. Compare that to a top college pitcher (69.8%), a top prep hitter (64.7%), and a top college hitter (84.9%), and you can see why people are concerned about the risk of taking a prep pitcher, even if he’s highly ranked like Taillon was. That said, when looking at what type of player produced the above-average and star players, the prep pitchers were one of the best bets. 43.4% of the top ranked prep pitchers from 2001-2005 draft went on to be above average or better players in the majors. 13.3% of the top ranked prep pitchers went on to be star players. Compare that to top college pitchers (39.5%/11.6%), top pre
