Why did staff not use the post-censal estimates done by Statistics Canada?
Statistics Canada produces annual post-censal estimates between censii using the “Components Method”. This method is based on estimates of the components of the population (births, deaths and net migration). Statistics Canada’s preliminary post-censal estimate for Ottawa in 2006 is 840,100. The drawbacks of this method are that migration estimates carry a high probability of error, and birth and death data usually have a lag of up to three years. Also, post-censal estimates are usually revised several times before being deemed final. This is why staff consider this method not as reliable as the City’s method of estimating the 2006 population. Staff based their estimate for 2006 on building permits by dwelling type issued since 2001, net of demolitions, adjusted for changes in the vacancy rate and for ongoing declines in average household size.
