Why did Dawshed and Jordan conclude that there was probably electoral fraud in Florida 2000?
Very simply, because electoral fraud was the most plausible explanation of the many we considered for the observations of Florida’s 2000 election. Statistical reasoning is a key element of deciding what is plausible and what is not, but it is only one key element of several. In New Hampshire, 2004, for example, election officials – though obviously not eager to host a recount – showed simple respect for the law. They did not attempt to obstruct reasonable steps to recount. That behavior seemed to suggest that they had nothing to hide. Had Florida behaved with equal grace in 2000, there would not be a cloud over George Bush’s election. We also know that Al Gore would have almost certainly been declared the winner. Statistical reasoning. Statistical analysis was one step in concluding that there was probably electoral fraud.
