Why Are American Presidential Election Campaign Polls So Variable When Votes are So Predictable?
by Andrew Gelman and Gary King, British Journal of Political Science, Vol. 23, No. 1 (October, 1993). (Data: ZIP, includes a Gauss program, data, and notes from a public lecture on how to forecast the 1992 elections (including everything but the random effects terms to allow within year correlations). The program also demonstrates how to use some simple Bayesian simulation techniques.) • The Stability of Partisan Identification in the U.S. House of Representatatives, 1789-1984. (Data: ZIP, includes PDFs of handwritten notes about individual party switchers.) • Measuring the Consequences of Delegate Selection Rules in Presidential Nominations by Stephen Ansolabehere and Gary King, Journal of Politics, Vol. 52, No. 2 (May, 1990): Pp. 609-621.
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