Why are all plays assessed in terms of “Game Winning Chance” expectations rather than actual results?
Every decision in a competitive sport should be based upon the optimization of Game Winning Chances (“GWC”). However, coaches often lose sight of this goal by focusing on points rather than the statistical expectation of winning. Points certainly matter in an NFL game, but not all points have the same value. Consider a team trailing by 2 points on the last play of the game at their opponents 2 yard line: the extra 4 points that come with a touchdown in lieu of a field goal have no value whatsoever. The field goal is the optimal GWC choice. In this simple example, if the team went for the TD and succeeded they would still be charged with a large blunder even though it didn’t affect the outcome of the game. This is because the chosen play will lose on average. ZEUS™ focuses on the methodology of optimal play-calling not the short term results. Over the course of a long season, every small piece of GWC matters. An example of a GWC Equity Progression from the 2004 AFC Championship Game ana
