Who has been more accurate in predicting weather, NOAA or the Old Farmers Almanac?
On its website, the Old Farmer’s almanac boasts that its forecasts are “traditionally 80 percent accurate.” The National Weather Service makes no such specific claims, and takes pains to offer caveats on the process of making long-term predictions, such as the following: In general, long range forecasts for temperature are usually more accurate than these for precipitation. This is because temperature varies only by small increments from place to place; it is more constant. On the other hand, precipitation is widely variable through time and from place to place. Even in short term forecasts out to 48 hours, precipitation forecasts are written as a probability of occurring. Therefore, it would seem more difficult to extend a precipitation forecast out to several months. The accuracy of any outlook varies both regionally and seasonally. For example, coastal areas experience a more stabilized climate throughout the year, making it less changeable and easier to predict.
