Who Are the Swing Voters?
In a typical election year, political independents and moderates are among those most likely to fall into the swing voter group. And that is the case as well this year. In this year’s election, it appears that swing voters are less likely to come from subgroups that show strong support for Obama, which is a positive sign for Obama. As shown in the accompanying graphs, liberals are the least likely of the ideological groups, and Democrats of the party affiliation groups, to fall into the swing voter group. Additionally, only 12% of voters under age 30 are swing voters, compared with roughly a quarter of those aged 30 or older. Throughout the campaign, young adults have supported Obama overwhelmingly. Also, white voters (26%) are more likely than nonwhites (18%) to be uncommitted at this point. Obama has typically held the support of more than 90% of blacks and 60% of Hispanics. Swing Voters Tend to Like Both McCain and Obama In general, swing voters seem to be positively disposed toward
