Which forecast is better: the Virtual Market Price or the Best Agents Price?
By default, Adaptive Modeler uses the Virtual Market Price as the forecast. Optionally, the forecast can also be based on the Best Agents Price. This feature is useful since it allows a comparison between the predictive abilities of the Virtual Market Price (which is based on the behavior of all agents) versus that of the Best Agents Price (which is based only on a group of the best performing agents). Since an essential principle of Adaptive Modeler is to use the Virtual Market Price as the forecast, it may be interesting to see whether or not this in fact outperforms a forecast based on the behavior of only the best performing agents (which may seem more intuitive to some people and more in line with methods generally used by trading software). As far as we have observed, the Virtual Market Price almost always performs better than the Best Agents Price. However, this may not be the case in all situations. Experimenting is recommended. Note that the accuracy of both forecasts can easi
