Which area(s) present the greatest threat to geopolitical stability?
Currently the regions posing the greatest threat to geopolitical stability are in the Middle East and West Asia. As indicated above, Iran could become a flashpoint for international tension which could result in significant destabilisation and the possibility of a Sunni/Shia confrontation in the Middle East. And the continued upsurge of violence in Afghanistan and Pakistan has the potential to export instability and terrorist violence to a much wider area. Looking further ahead, the process of rapid militarisation taking place in East Asia, a region with no effective security institutions to act as a moderating influence, could result in confrontation, in particular over access to natural resources.However, this is more of concern for the medium term. In what way is the terrorism threat changing/emerging right now? Many terrorist groups remain national in focus and so present only a localised threat, examples being ETA in Spain and the Tamil Tigers in Sri Lanka. The biggest development
