Where is the next pope likely to come from?
For 455 years before the election of Pope John Paul II, all popes had been Italian. One of the big questions now is whether Italy will get the papacy back. Many Vatican watchers are doubtful, if only because the number of Italian cardinals has declined in recent years. Much more likely, they believe, is that the next pope will be from the developing world – and most likely from Latin America, whose cardinals now form a powerful voting bloc. Nearly half of the world’s baptised Catholics live in the Americas, and more live in Brazil than in any other country in the world. There is also a chance that an African pope could emerge from the conclave. Only 10 popes have been non-European and the last of these lived in the 8th Century. Two hundred and 11 popes have been Italian, about 86% of the total.
