Where is the new iPod Nano?
Read the NAND leaves. Apple, being one of the largest purchasers (and by proxy best negotiators) of flash memory destined for MP3 devices, recognized this choke point in 2005. But rather than lay out the capital cost of building their own chipfab, the entered into a $500M agreement with Intel and Micron last November helping to form IM Flash Technologies. By paying out $250M each to Intel and Micron, they’ve secured first-mover access at unparalleled pricing for NAND+ products. I call them NAND+ because IM Flash is already sampling the industry’s first 50nm scale technology for manufacturing flash, a process 10x smaller than that of facilities just coming online now. This got me to thinking about why we still haven’t seen a new iPod released by Apple. Are they relinquishing their perceptual first-mover’s advantage? Not necessarily. My prediction is that they’re waiting until their investment in cheaper, smaller, NAND technology is ready. Smaller nm NAND flash offers higher capacities i
