Where does avian flu stand in the pantheon of deadly viruses?
Either there’s a re-assortment event, where the human virus re-assorts with the avian virus: they exchange gene fragments, and you get a new virus with the virulence of the chicken flu, and the transmissibility of the human flu. Or, through a gradual series of mutations the avian H5 acquires the ability to transmit from person to person. And how typical is that evolution in the world of flu viruses? Influenza viruses evolve, that’s what they do. They mutate with every replication and they change over time. And we have already seen the H5 virus mutating and changing over time. Since it was first seen in Hong Kong in 1997, the properties of the current virus are different from the 1997 virus. That will continue to happen. And does that then make it much more dangerous, much more virulent to humans? I don’t know if that’s necessarily the case. It may be more or less dangerous to humans. What we’ve seen since 1997 is not encouraging however. If you look at the mortality in 1997 in Hong Kon
