Where do the statistical assumptions come from?
Fortunately, very good statistical data is accessible from the NFL on a team-by-team basis. Using this data, distribution curves were developed for the probabilistic outcomes of every possible play choice. Through continued refinement, a core model was developed that very accurately replicates how typical NFL teams perform against each other. After performing millions of simulations, a comparison of several key statistics was conducted against actual NFL historical data. In categories such as average score differential, point outputs, time of possession, rushing and passing yardage, kicking distances and field goal success rates, the results of ZEUS™ were “spot on”. This provided the utmost confidence in the core model before allowing it to be used to assess critical play calling.
