When will the Turing Test be passed? And what will it mean for human society?
Kurzweil: I’ve been quite consistent that it’ll happen by 2029. I think (the rules, that a computer passes the test if it fools the judges 30 percent of the time, are) actually too lenient–in the recent test it fooled the judges 25 percent of the time. Every time they run that test the computers do a little bit better. The first reports (of a computer passing) I probably won’t accept it myself…but then as time goes on the computers will pass more and more stringent sets of rules and by 2029 it’ll be unarguable that computers have passed. And I do think it’s a good test. It’s not by the way a test of human consciousness–it’s a test of human intelligence, which is something we can objectively measure even though we can argue about how to measure it. Consciousness is not something we can readily measure in another entity. However, in order for a computer or any entity to pass the Turing Test it has to master human emotion–and human emotion is not some sideshow. What humans do well is
