When it was happened that the Economic Forecast Breakfast, 2008 called the Big Drop?”
Peak Oil and the Financial Markets: A Forecast for 2008 Posted by Gail the Actuary on January 9, 2008 – 11:32am Topic: Economics/Finance Tags: alan greenspan, government debt, peak oil [list all tags] At this time of year, we read many financial forecasts for the year ahead. Nearly all of these are written with the “filter” assumption of infinite growth. “Oil production problems are a temporary issue; after a short dip, the economy is likely to continue growing rapidly again. We may have a short recession, but we will soon be back to business as usual.” Etc. I think this filter is fundamentally in error, and leads to a mistaken impression with respect to where the world is headed. The world is changing in a very major way. Oil is in short supply, and this shortage is likely to get larger in the future. The pressure of short supply and rising prices adds a systematic bias that the financial community is not recognizing. This bias has as its basis the fact that it is becoming more and mo
On Thursday of this week, I had the privilege of attending the 18th annual Economic Forecast Breakfast at the Crown Plaza in Colorado Springs. It was packed with information and presentations from a residential real estate expert (Brian Maecker) , a commercial real estate expert (Doug Carter), an apartment expert (Kent Mau); and the City Manager of Colorado Springs, Dr. Penny Culbreth-Graft. Brian Maecker’s presentation about Residential Real Estate was titled “2008, The Big Drop” and was stuffed full of charts and grafts showing residential prices in Colorado Springs. Essentially the average home sales prices in the Colorado Springs area is currently $213,466, which makes it close to the pricing in 2003. These pricing calculations are based on all housing in the area, both single family and townhomes. I’ve put together my own analysis of pricing on Single Family Homes and compared the pricing changes in different areas of the city. This information will be posted in the next couple of
