When could Iran deliver a nuclear weapon?
The traditional concern about Iran’s capability to deliver a nuclear weapon involves an Iranian ballistic missile that could reach the United States from Iran. Therefore, in this piece I describe the current state and expected time when Iran could achieve these capabilities on the basis of recent statements by U.S. government officials, the unclassified portion of the December 2007 Iran National Intelligence Estimate, and data from an April 2006 interview with the head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization. But Iran could far sooner deliver a nuclear weapon against U.S. coastal cities by using short-range ballistic or cruise missiles fired from a ship near U.S. shores. Such missiles would be more accurate and carry a heavier payload than an Iranian intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).
