What’s the significance of the Presidential poll results?
Considering the timing of the poll, a tie may be a better sign for Sen. Kerry than it is for President Bush. After a major advertising blitz by the Bush campaign in Pennsylvania and other battleground states, the race hasn’t turned the President’s way in Pennsylvania. Considering party loyalty alone, President Bush’s advantage over Sen. Kerry loyalty is small – 80% of Republican voters prefer President Bush, while 75% of Pennsylvania Democrats prefer Sen. Kerry. Further, registered Independent voters in Pennsylvania, whose votes could make the difference, favored Sen. Kerry, 40% to 35%. PSRAI conducted telephone interviews from April 16-25 with 1,001 Pennsylvania adults ages 18 and over; 867 identified themselves as registered voters. The results have been statistically weighted to correct known demographic discrepancies. The overall margin of sampling error for results based on registered voters is plus or minus 4 percentage points. More information from this in-depth poll is coming.
