Whats the probability that NSCC will default?
Internationally, clearing corporations calibrate their risk containment system so that failures are expected to take place roughly once or twice in each fifty years. The track record of futures clearing corporations internationally is impressive. In the 20th century, we have seen just a handful of failures (e.g. Hong Kong in 1987). NSCC has a short track record: it has been doing novation on the “equity spot mar-ket” (which is actually a futures market) from 1996 onwards. In these five years, the equity market has experienced high volatility, a high incidence of bankruptcies by NSE brokerage firms, payments problems on other exchanges, etc. NSCC has successfully shouldered the task of doing novation on India’s largest financial market (NSE). While this suggests that NSCC may have fairly sound risk containment systems, we should be cautious since it only has a track record of five years of doing novation.
