What’s The Matter With The Incumbent Rule?
Nov 12, 2004 – By John Zogby Note: The following column was the lead article in the November issue of Zogby’s Real America newsletter. For more hard-hitting commentary like this from John Zogby and his team at Zogby International, check out the latest issue of Zogby’s Real America newsletter. Visit http://www.zogby.com/realamerica/index.cfm for details. The Incumbent Rule is one of those useful analytical tools that people in my business, along with political scientists and pundits of every stripe, put a lot of stock in. It’s a proven device for making predictions based on history, and it’s held up surprisingly well over time. But it’s also taken a lot of hits among the talking heads lately. Basically, the Rule says that historically, if an incumbent is polling under 50 percent, and leading his opponent by less than ten points, in the overwhelming majority of cases-historically-the incumbent loses. Well, in this campaign season, seldom did I ever have President Bush-the putative incumb
