What would have happened if Gavrilo Princip had missed?
There were growing tensions in Europe anyway. The continent was on the brink of a general war several times in 1908 (Austria annexates Bosnia), 1912-1913 (Balkan wars) and the Moroccan crises (1906 and 1911). There would have been a war anyhow. The Germans were feeling that is was the moment or never to become the dominant player (Russia was industrializing, France was beginning to catch up, Austria was declining rapidly), the French wanted Alsace back really bad, the Brits were afraid of the German Navy, the Russians, humiliated in 1905 and 1908 could not back down, the Austrians wanted to crush Serbia at any cost. All the ingredients were there for a huge war, and had Prinzip missed, something else would have starte the war.
Gavrilo Princip (July 25, 1894 – April 28, 1918) was a Serb member of the Young Bosnia secret society who assassinated Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria and his wife Sophie, Duchess of Hohenberg in Sarajevo on June 28, 1914. The event, known as the assassination in Sarajevo, prompted the Austrian action against Serbia that led to World War I. Tensions between Austria and Serbia were strained, and even if Gavrilo had missed, Austria may still have moved against Serbia, or some other event would have triggered the first great war.
I have no doubt that World War I would still have happened – it had been predicted since at least 1870, and the system of alliances in Europe, and the nationalism that was growing in the Balkans, meant that it was never going to be avoided. Something else would have sparked off the conflict. Maybe a few months later, maybe a few years later; but the war was going to start.
