What Would a Modern-Day Flu Pandemic Look Like?
No one can predict with certainty exactly how a modern-day influenza pandemic will manifest itself, Dr. Toner noted. The 1918, 1957, and 1968 experiences suggest, however, that pandemics happen quickly and affect many communities simultaneously. In 1957, it took only 2 months for the outbreak to become nationwide. Based on the HHS planning assumption of a 1918-like pandemic and CDC’s FluSurge software, local hospitals today can expect to have only 1 mechanical respirator for every 2 flu patients, and only 1 bed for every 4–5 flu patients who need them at the peak of the crisis. Because hospital surge capacity is limited, it is unrealistic for a community to expect that flu patients would receive normal standards of care and that other healthcare services would be unaffected. The following public health interventions, argued Toner, cannot halt a novel flu virus. At best, they may slow the spread of disease, although this is not yet proven: • Vaccines: Because the flu virus is constantly
