What will be the impact of Doha’s collapse on poor people in developing countries?
The real impact of the collapse is unclear as there was so much that remained to be negotiated. But if the question is whether what was on the table would have provided significant economic benefits to those living in poverty, the short answer is no. Granted the U.S. offer would have forced some real constraints on subsidies available under the current farm legislation. Similarly, reforms that are being undertaken in the EU’s Common Agriculture Policy would have been locked in. And some benefits would have been derived from cuts to bound tariff rates. But most of the important issues for developing countries remained undecided. Subsidies on cotton; tariffs on bananas, textiles, and clothing (so-called “sensitive” products excluded from tariff reductions); preference erosion on key exports; and, of course, safeguards all remained unresolved, so it is difficult to calculate whether there would have been a net gain or a loss as a result of the agreement. Indeed, one of the most sensitive
