What scenario has to occur for McCain/Palin to win 270 electoral college votes given current poll numbers?
First of all, one single poll doesn’t show much. The best way of looking at the race is if we look at several polls and try to put together all the data. Because the more data we have, presumably, we should be able to draw better conclusions. FiveThirtyEight.Com does exactly what I said. They have a complicated methodology for calculating the chance of Obama wining the election. What they do is to assign a “weight” to any poll. This is based on the following 3 factors: 1) The poll’s past behavior 2) The recentness of the poll 3) Its sample size What they have now is that Obama has around 96% chance of wining the election. This means that from 10,000 simulations that they ran yesterday, Obama has won the race in more than 96% of the times. They also assume some other factors like demographics of a state and its past behavior but polls have much more weight than a state past voting behavior. For t
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