What methodology was used for the ratings?
The Fund for Peace used its Conflict Assessment System Tool (CAST), an original methodology it has developed and tested over the last decade. CAST is a flexible model that has the capability to employ a four-step trend-line analysis, consisting of (1) rating 12 social, economic, and political/military indicators; (2) assessing the capabilities of five core state institutions considered essential for sustaining security; (3) identifying idiosyncratic factors and surprises; and (4) placing countries on a conflict map that shows the risk history of countries being analyzed. For the Failed States Index, FfP focused solely on the first step, which provides snapshots of state vulnerability or risk of violence during a window in time. The CAST software indexed and scanned hundreds of thousands of open-source articles and reports using Boolean logic. This is accomplished by using a powerful data-collection system that includes international and local media reports and other public documents, i
