What measures does AUTOBOX provide for actually measuring forecast performance?
AUTOBOX provides a comprehensive summary of forecasting performance and allows for forecast errors to be tracked by origin and by lead time. In a sentence one 12 period out forecast error is not the same as twelve 1 period out forecast errors. Kind of obvious but most people never think of tracking performance from different origins. ACTUAL DATA & FOUR PERIOD OUT FORECASTS FROM SIX ORIGINS (LEAD TIME = 4 ; ORIGINS = 6) ACTUAL 397 378 472 370 395 427 ORIGIN\DATE 1984/3 1984/4 1984/5 1984/6 1984/7 1984/8 1984/2 308 328 399 355 1984/3 347 472 387 431 1984/4 396 404 426 439 1984/5 421 436 441 1984/6 444 448 1984/7 444 Note: We have 6 estimates of a one-period out forecast error Note: We have 5 estimates of a two-period out forecast error Note: We have 4 estimates of a three-period out forecast error Note: We have 3 estimates of a four-period out forecast error Measures To Assess Forecast Model Performance The above table contains all the raw data necessary to assess how predictable the fut
