What kind of effect does the aging population and declining birthrate have on the Japanese housing market?
There’s still no direct effect. The main purchasers of homes in Japan are people in their 30s, the children of the baby boomer generation, and we have thus not yet seen a significant decrease in population. Also, we’re seeing new trends in household structures that somewhat mimic the United States. While in the past you’d have several generations living under one roof, more people are choosing to live in nuclear families, increasing the need for new housing. Currently the industry has not noticed a decline, but I estimate that in about 10 years, when those who are currently in their teens and 20s become the target demographic for housing purchases, we’ll start seeing the effects of these two problems. But Japan has one more problem: one quarter of Japan’s 53 million existing houses are not earthquake resistant. Current building standards were established in 1981, and structures built before this time need to be rebuilt. Therefore, even after we start to see the effects of an aging popu
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