What is the upper limit estimate of conflict-related deaths? What does it mean?
We estimated that the total deaths due to hunger and illness, in excess of a Crude Death Rate (CDR) baseline, could be as high as 183,000. This upper-bound estimate adjusts for possible underestimation resulting from the loss of social knowledge. That is, the upper-bound estimate takes into consideration the magnitude of hunger and illness deaths which left no surviving parents, siblings or children who could have been respondents in the CAVR’s Retrospective Mortality Survey. The upper-bound estimate of 183,000 deaths due to hunger and illness are based on a number of assumptions, including assumptions about the shape of the decline of the Crude Death Rate (CDR) from the early 1970s through the late 1990s and about the nature of the loss of social memory. This estimate is also subject to substantial sampling and non-sampling error. The unadjusted estimate of 102,800 conflict-related deaths must be a minimum bound, as it only represents those deaths which could be remembered by people r
