What Is the Status of the South American Soybean Crop?
In January, there is still considerable speculation about the size of the South American soybean crop, and often the estimates do not become very accurate until April or May. Sometimes, it is useful to compare estimates from several different sources. In the USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report for January, the Brazilian crop size was reduced by 1.5 million metric tons, to 60.5 million metric tons, while Argentina’s crop-size estimate remained the same. Despite this revision in Brazilian crop size, the USDA still looks for a 2.5% increase in production over 2007 levels. Partially offsetting the loss in Brazil, the USDA increased Paraguay’s crop size by 0.5 million metric tons, to a record 7 million metric tons. Brazil’s National Company of Food Supply (CONAB) noted in its December 2007 and January 2008 reports that dry conditions at planting time and a shift in soybean planted acres in southern Brazil is expected to result in a 0.4% decline in production. The pr
