What is the “reluctant Bush responder” (rBr) hypothesis?
First of all, it is a name coined by critics. What the pollsters concluded in the evaluation report was simply that Kerry voters apparently participated at a higher rate. That statement doesn’t entail that Bush voters recoiled from the interviewers. It is possible that some Bush voters did steer around interviewers, and/or that some Kerry voters steered toward interviewers, and/or that some interviewers subtly favored Kerry voters over Bush voters. The statements I quoted above do emphasize non-response bias — i.e., that Kerry voters were less likely to refuse than Bush voters were. Sampling bias by interviewers (approaching more Kerry voters than Bush voters) could also contribute to a difference in participation rates. The evaluation report never refers to “reluctant Bush responders.” In fact, it doesn’t venture any specific motivations — reluctance, eagerness, fear, enthusiasm, defiance, shyness, or anything else. This reserve is appropriate because, after all, the exit pollsters
