What is the regional reach of terror groups operating in Somalia?
The regional reach of Shabab is clear—it can strike throughout East Africa. With the low capacity of its police and an easily penetrated border, Kenya is the most vulnerable to attack. Shabab can essentially enter and leave Kenya freely, opening the door to hit the country’s soft targets more or less at will. We suspect that the reason Shabab has yet to wage a coordinated campaign in Kenya is because there are enormous Somali investments in the country. This is one of the explanations offered for why Shabab hasn’t taken its war beyond Somalia’s borders—it fears blowback from Somali communities. A major terrorist attack would damage Somali investments and the ability of Somalis to live abroad would be compromised. It is also important to note that Shabab is now quite unpopular in Somalia. Since 2009, it has found it more difficult to rationalize its harsh control. The group’s draconian interpretations of Sharia law and al-Qaeda affiliation are out of step with the local population. Shab
