What is the projection for global temperature in the year 2040?
I’m not aware of anyone projecting a likely 2C by as soon as 2040 or even 2050, though Prof James Lovelock thinks things could be much worse than that by 2030 – he’s exceptional though. The consensus view is that by 2040 we’re (hopefully!) looking at just another 0.7 – 1C, assuming no massive methane release from Alaska, Canada and Siberia ; there’s a slight acceleration in the projections, compared with what was measured in the past 3 decades, though this varies a little depending on which scenario you’re looking at (business as usual, emissions cuts, accelerating emissions); the big turn upwards comes AFTER 2060, but again it depends on which scenario you chose to follow. Globally averaged surface air temperature isn’t really the problem on the 2040 time scale – it’s more: (a) the drought and extreme weather events, combining with population growth and lack of phosphate, leading to possible global famine. (The phosphate is needed for fertiliser, and global production of high quality
