What is the prognosis for tropical sea surface temperature for the next decade?
Figure 7 shows a fall in sea surface pressure in the south east Pacific between solar cycles 18 and 21. During the entirety of solar cycle 21, sea surface pressure was severely depressed. The Earth system was shocked by a severe warming event with a half degree step change in sea surface temperature at 10° to 20° north latitude. Cycles 22 and 23 also produced long periods of depressed surface pressure representing sustained warming events. However, the trend since the start of cycle 22 is for sea surface pressure to rise, culminating in record peak pressure in 2007. A small solar cycle 24 should continue this trend and the Earth will continue to cool. Surface temperature data can not be trusted. But a cooling trend is apparent in some datasets after 1978 and in satellite records of the temperature of the troposphere.
